Goto

Collaborating Authors

 payoff matrix








No Free Lunch Theorem and Black-Box Complexity Analysis for Adversarial Optimisation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Black-box optimisation is one of the important areas in optimisation. The original No Free Lunch (NFL) theorems highlight the limitations of traditional black-box optimisation and learning algorithms, serving as a theoretical foundation for traditional optimisation. No Free Lunch Analysis in adversarial (also called maximin) optimisation is a long-standing problem [45, 46]. This paper first rigorously proves a (NFL) Theorem for general black-box adversarial optimisation when considering Pure Strategy Nash Equilibrium (NE) as the solution concept.


Long-term Causal Effects via Behavioral Game Theory

Panagiotis Toulis, David C. Parkes

Neural Information Processing Systems

Planned experiments are the gold standard in reliably comparing the causal effect of switching from a baseline policy to a new policy. One critical shortcoming of classical experimental methods, however, is that they typically do not take into account the dynamic nature of response to policy changes. For instance, in an experiment where we seek to understand the effects of a new ad pricing policy on auction revenue, agents may adapt their bidding in response to the experimental pricing changes. Thus, causal effects of the new pricing policy after such adaptation period, the long-term causal effects, are not captured by the classical methodology even though they clearly are more indicative of the value of the new policy. Here, we formalize a framework to define and estimate long-term causal effects of policy changes in multiagent economies. Central to our approach is behavioral game theory, which we leverage to formulate the ignorability assumptions that are necessary for causal inference. Under such assumptions we estimate long-term causal effects through a latent space approach, where a behavioral model of how agents act conditional on their latent behaviors is combined with a temporal model of how behaviors evolve over time.